Why Saint John, N.B. would feel massive impact from U.S. tariffs

Political leaders and businesses in Saint John, N.B. are bracing for the impact of looming U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, saying the city is the most vulnerable in the country.

“Tariffs would be inflationary on both sides of the border and this could create a squeeze at the household level, which would be pretty challenging to navigate,” said Fraser Walls, board chair of the Saint John Chamber of Commerce.

On Feb. 1, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods. A day before the tariffs were to go into effect, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Trump had a phone call, after which Trump paused the tariffs for 30 days.

According to new research by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Saint John would be hit the hardest by U.S. tariffs. 

Using Statistics Canada trade data, the organization came up with a “U.S. Tariff Exposure Index” to look at the potential impact of threatened American tariffs on 41 Canadian cities.

The researchers said Saint John is the most vulnerable. The area is home to the Irving Oil refinery, the largest crude oil refinery in Canada. The refinery can process over 320,000 barrels daily, with more than 80 per cent of that oil exported south of the border.

In a statement last week, the refinery said it has had a “proud and strong relationship with the United States” since 1972.

“This tariff will result in price increases for our U.S. customers and have impacts on energy security and the broader economy,” the statement read.

“Given the importance of safeguarding the energy supply chain, we urge all stakeholders within government and industry to come together and work toward a resolution as soon as possible.”

The Chamber of Commerce report also noted seafood and forestry products are New Brunswick’s other top exports to the U.S.

“In 2023, there was $15.5 billion (worth of) goods that was traded from New Brunswick to the U.S., and a good portion of that is from Saint John,” said Walls.

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Walls fears a possible multi-billion dollar impact on the local economy in Saint John, and says there’s great potential for the Maritimes to work together to reduce reliance on the U.S. market.

It’s an idea shared by Saint John Coun. Brent Harris.

“We really should be repatriating as much of our supply chains as we can anyway, and so what better place than Saint John with a deep-water port,” he said.

He adds that the city has a unique opportunity to expand its cargo facilitates.

“The Saint John Airport is very underutilized as a cargo option. Tons of available space, a direct rail link that goes to it, so, there’s a lot of competitive advantages here that we’ve really not put in the investment and the effort to explore.”

Additionally, Trump signed an executive order Monday to implement 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, beginning March 12. It would stack on top of the 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods, according to the White House. 

— with a file from The Canadian Press