The UK could be set to have had its warmest year on record, forecasters say, with a warning that we are currently living in “extraordinary times”.
The Met Office said that 2025 is on track to possibly surpass 2022 to take the top spot, after a hot summer and mild temperatures across the majority of the year.
So far, the average annual temperature is tracking at 10.05C, ahead of the previous record of 10.03C set in 2022.
A forecasted cold spell over Christmas means the final figure is not yet confirmed.
If confirmed, 2025 will be only the second year in observational records where the UK’s annual mean temperature has topped 10C.
Four of the last five years will then appear in the top five warmest years since records began in 1884, with all of the top 10 warmest years occurring in the last two decades.
Mike Kendon is a senior scientist in the Met Office’s climate information team. He said: “If confirmed at year end this will be the second annual UK temperature record for the UK this decade with the previous being in 2022. This should come as no surprise.
“Over the last four decades we have seen the UK’s annual temperature rise by around 1.0°C. We will have to wait for the year end before confirming 2025’s final number, but at this stage it looks more likely than not that 2025 will be confirmed as the warmest year on record for the UK.
“However, it will not be long until this record is broken again. Since the start of the 21st Century a new record has been set for UK annual mean temperature no less than six times – in 2002, 2003, 2006, 2014, 2022 and now 2025 (if confirmed) – each record progressively warmer than the last.
“In terms of our climate, we are living in extraordinary times. The changes we are seeing are unprecedented in observational records back to the 19th Century.”
Professor of climate science Friederike Otto said: “The finding is devastating and utterly unsurprising, 10C might not sound very warm, but it is an average and means much higher temperatures in the summer, high temperatures that would have never been possible are now common and that is not good news.”
Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said: “This is further evidence of the impacts of climate change in the UK, and the urgent need for us to stop warming by leading the world in reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases as soon as possible.”
