Americans are waiting with baited breath to see if President Donald Trump will fulfill his promise to send $2,000 tariff rebate checks next year – an idea he has repeatedly floated in press conferences, on social media and meetings.
Over the last 12 months, Trump has taken the U.S. economy on a rollercoaster – starting out high, plummeting the stock market with worldwide tariffs, pressuring the Federal Reserve to make interest rates cuts, overseeing a rise in unemployment and always claiming the country is more affordable than ever.
Trump, who is expected to address the nation Wednesday evening, has made it clear he wants to give Americans cash, especially as he attempts to reclaim the affordability messaging that Democrats managed to win with in November.
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! …. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” Trump said on Truth Social in November.
But it’s unclear if that reality is possible.
The White House has not released a concrete plan and when asked about it, members of the administration and Trump allies have varying degrees of confidence.
“We will see. We need legislation for that,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures last month. Bessent later told ABC News that tariff revenue could come in many forms – indicating it may not necessarily be a paycheck akin to the first Trump administration’s stimulus checks.
Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, told reporters in November, there was enough tariff revenue “to cover those checks and not go into the rest of the budget.”
One major factor as to whether the tariff rebate checks are even possible is how the Supreme Court rules in Trump’s tariff case. If the court upholds Trump’s attempts to impose sweeping tariffs through the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, then the president could move forward with his one-time checks.
But if the court deems the tariffs unconstitutional, it would likely cause major economic disruption and certainly remove the possibility of rebate checks.
The president has also previously suggested next year could see the “largest tax refused season ever,” after a series of tax cuts in July.
Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, who has consistently praised the president’s unpopular tariff policy, is confident the Supreme Court will side with the administration.
Lutnick told Fox Business that giving Americans a one-time $2,000 check would also “prove to the American people how great tariffs are.”
The administration has been working overtime to try and sell the president’s key economic policy, tariffs, which many predicted would raise consumer prices, increase inflation and lower GDP.
But giving Americans rebate check is an expensive policy that requires sign-off from Republicans in Congress.
So far, Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated he’d rather see money from tariffs go toward paying down the national debt.
Senator Josh Hawley, a staunch ally to Trump, introduced legislation this summer that would give $600 million worth of tariff rebates to Americans.
Some economists have raised concerns that one-time tariff payment checks could raise inflation in the country.
Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation told the New York Times that “pumping money” into the economy without underlying changes threatens to generate higher prices.
But Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative, dismissed those concerns last month, claiming it’s “not some kind of ongoing new welfare program or something that would exacerbate inflation.”
