In a very literal sense, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro must have spent the weekend wondering whether he is coming or going.
On the one hand, the White House last week held out the possibility of him traveling to the United States for an unprecedented, face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump.
On the other hand, the US leader then spent the weekend indicating the prospect of military strikes to oust Venezuela’s leader from power.
Confusion abounded in both Washington and Caracas. It was fueled by Trump’s social media posting in which he claimed that he was closing Venezuelan air space, an apparent indication that an American ground assault on the country might be edging closer.
“To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “Thank you for your attention to this matter!” he added, lest the world might not have noticed.
Of course, Trump does not actually enjoy the legal authority to close the air space of any nation other than his own, and Maduro quickly batted away the gambit.
Venezuela’s government said it “forcefully rejects” Trump’s claim, viewing it as a “colonial threat” to the country’s “territorial integrity, aeronautical security and full sovereignty… Such declarations constitute a hostile, unilateral and arbitrary act”, claimed the country’s Foreign Ministry.
Washington’s threat came after the extraordinary revelation, first reported by The New York Times, that Trump and Maduro had actually spoken last week by telephone. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the most hawkish of Trump’s advisers regarding Venezuela, joined the call.
It came shortly the US government formally designated Maduro as the leader of a foreign terrorist organisation. Maduro stands accused of heading “Cartel de los Soles”, a corruption and drug-trafficking network that Venezuela denies even exists, but that Washington claims is behind an array of illegal activities.
With the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, now sitting in the region and preparing for possible military action targeting Maduro’s government, Trump has repeatedly warned that his maritime campaign against alleged Venezuelan drug-traffickers will soon intensify and lead to ground attacks.
So far, more than 80 people have been killed in American air strikes launched against more than a dozen fast-moving boats in the waters of the Caribbean.
The Pentagon has provided no proof to support claims that it has been targeting drug traffickers heading to US shores, nor offers any legal justification for its actions.
So nervous did Washington’s military adventurism make the British government, that the UK suspended some intelligence sharing with Washington earlier this month, concerned that it might be contributing to illegal acts of warfare.
In the days ahead, Maduro faces an unpalatable array of choices. He can call Trump’s bluff, and see just how determined the US leader may be to remove him from power.
Or he can consider taking up Trump’s offer of face-to-face talks on American soil. But how that latter scenario plays out, given that the Department of State is already offering a $50m reward for the capture of the Venezuelan leader is extremely uncertain.
Maduro will hope that he has attracted Trump’s attention by offering the US a dominant stake in Venezuela’s oil industry and its mineral resources in order to avoid conflict.
But those talks, which began earlier this year, have reportedly come to a standstill, with Rubio especially urging Trump to push for regime change in Caracas.
Maduro’s re-election in July 2024 was controversially upheld by the country’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice, even as Venezuelan opposition leaders and the United Nations accused him of widespread voter fraud.
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In October, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, though in recent days some former US officials have accused her of promoting exaggerated claims about Maduro in an effort to spark American military action.
As he weighs his options, Trump’s desire to secure the Nobel Peace Prize for himself may also be a factor. The president and his supporters relentlessly claim that he “ended eight wars in eight months”.
Whether he is willing to start one in America’s own back yard may be the most important factor in determining Maduro’s fate.
