Russia may soon capture the city of Pokrovsk, which could have larger implications for the war
A Ukrainian defeat in the battle for the key city of Pokrovsk could push US President Donald Trump to look more favourably on Russia’s Vladimir Putin in any future peace talks, experts have warned.
After months of attritional combat, analysts said that the high-profile loss of the city would come at a bad time for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is facing a corruption scandal at home.
Russia is thought to be on the verge of capturing Pokrovsk, as its troops take advantage of dense fog to encircle the city. Ukrainian soldiers fighting there have told The i Paper that it is only a “matter of time” until it falls.
This could have larger implications for the overall war and future attempts at a ceasefire or peace deal.
Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence and an honorary professor at University College London’s school of Slavonic and East European Studies, said the fall of Pokrovsk could be a tipping point in Ukraine’s national morale, and could give Trump an opportunity to once again see Russia as the likely winner.
He told The i Paper that it “represents a victory that, after a year and a half of fighting [over the city], will give Putin something to talk about in his New Year’s address, which I think is quite significant for him”.
Trump looked to have lost patience with Putin last month, when a summit in Budapest was called off, seemingly over Russia’s inflexible demands over Ukraine. This was accompanied by a ratcheting up of military tensions between the US and Russia.
Galeotti believes Trump’s recent tough approach to Putin came after Zelensky and a pro-Ukraine faction in the White House convinced him “that his notion that the Russians were the winning side was wrong”.
But, Ukraine’s defeat in the long and gruelling battle could push Trump to change his mind.
“A headline victory in Pokrovsk is going to be used by Putin to try to persuade Trump that, in fact, the Russians are indeed the winning side,” Galeotti said. “And we know that Trump tends to favour the winning side.”
Trump favours the winning side
Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at defence think-tank Rusi, said the loss of Pokrovsk would extend beyond its immediate tactical value to either side.
She told The i Paper it “could also have an impact on the peace negotiations that are currently being stalled, by giving Russia a better negotiating position and allowing it to keep its maximalist demands as a precondition to ending the war.”
Losing the city would also represent a serious psychological setback for Ukraine, she said, “likely affecting public morale and forcing Kyiv to divert scarce resources to compensate for weakened positions”.
“Russia’s seizure of Pokrovsk would be significant in that it would deprive Ukraine’s use of the town as a logistics hub,” said Christina Harward, Russia deputy team lead at the Institute for the Study of War.
However, she argued that Russia had effectively already achieved this objective back in July 2025.
“Any other significance of the seizure is still unclear,” Harward added. “It will likely depend on how Ukrainian troops withdraw or retreat, how Ukraine sets up its defences beyond the town, and Russia’s ability to actually exploit its gains to conduct a pursuit of Ukrainian forces.”
Tough days for Zelensky and Ukraine
The potentially imminent loss of Pokrovsk comes at a bad time for Ukraine’s president, Galeotti said, as he is facing damaging allegations that a close ally was involved in a £76m kickback scheme.
These, plus continuing strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, pose a “terrible trifecta” for Zelensky, Galeotti said. “This could begin to undermine people’s sense that it’s worth putting their lives on the line in order to fight this war.”
Last week, The i Paper reported that Ukraine was suffering critical frontline manpower shortages, with one soldier saying desertions are worse in Pokrovsk than any other battle – a claim that could not be independently verified.
Galeotti said Ukraine’s impending loss of Pokrovsk shows that it is suffering from manpower shortages, while Russia continues to send in waves of troops, with seemingly little concern for high casualty rates.
The city sits at major road and rail intersections in the Donetsk region, and had functioned as a major artery for the supply of Ukrainian troops, equipment and supplies.
Russian control of the city would give it a platform to attack key “fortress cities” such as Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. “Such a breakthrough would also open pathways for deeper advances toward strategically and economically vital regions such as Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia,” said RUSI’s Seskuria.
A Russian-held Pokrovsk could also be used to advance its drone offensive further into Ukraine, according to Galeotti.
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Even so, the larger impact of the loss of Pokrovsk would only become apparent in the future.
Harward said that Russia has been “pushing the false narrative that a Russian victory in the war is inevitable such that Ukraine and the West should just give up now”.
“The Kremlin will likely exploit the fall of Pokrovsk to push this narrative even more. But a Russian victory in Ukraine is by no means guaranteed at this point,” she added.
If the city falls, Harward said that Russia would likely redeploy some of the forces that have been fighting in and around Pokrovsk to other sectors.
“Where Russia redeploys forces after the likely fall of Pokrovsk in the future will be a good indication of Russia’s prioritisation,” she added.
