High-profile issues including the never-ending problem of the Epstein files are expected to snowball during the second half of Trump’s presidential term
Donald Trump could become a “lame duck” president within a year unless he turns the political tide before next year’s mid-terms, experts have told The i Paper.
Following a difficult few weeks, during which the continuing issue of Trump’s links to Jeffrey Epstein resurfaced, the government shutdown cut off low-income citizens from welfare, inflation continued to eat into Americans’ earnings, and the Democrats stormed to victory in key elections by promising to address the cost of living, the US President has suffered from tanking polls numbers.
Even though he has reached a deal to end the record-breaking shutdown, criticism from high-profile figures in his Republican Party and Maga base has also highlighted fractures that are only likely to widen during the second half of his presidential term.
Epstein looms large
On Wednesday, Trump was once again linked to Epstein, as Democrats on the House Oversight Committee released a further 20,000 pages of documents from the estate of the convicted sex offender.
Democrats made public three emails referencing the President, including one Epstein wrote in 2011 where he told his confidante Ghislaine Maxwell that Trump had “spent hours” at his house with Virginia Giuffre, a prominent accuser who died by suicide this year.
In another email, from 2019, Epstein told a journalist that Trump “knew about the girls” – though what he knew — and whether it pertained to the sex offender’s crimes — remains unclear.
Trump was friends with Epstein in the 1990s and early 2000s, but he has consistently denied having any knowledge of the billionaire’s criminal behaviour, calling the latest emails a “hoax”.
However, interest in the Epstein case is perhaps strongest among his own Maga base, where conspiracy theories have thrived since the disgraced financier’s death in 2019, encouraged by Trump himself .
Dr Mark Shanahan, associate professor of political engagement at Surrey University, told The i Paper that the Epstein case remained a significant threat to Trump, with the potential to derail his entire presidency.
He said: “If it turns out that Trump is now fighting against the files’ release, or is found to be caught up in their revelations, it could cause the most dangerous fracture to his hold over the Maga constituency.
“If that plays out into the mid-terms, any Republicans aligning with Trump will be in danger of losing their congressional seats – and losing Congress will open up the final two years of Trump’s second term as lame duck territory, with a strong threat of a third impeachment.”
Dr Richard Johnson, senior lecturer in US Politics at Queen Mary University of London, suggested the Epstein issue would be more influential among swing voters, persuading them not to vote for Trump-aligned candidates.
“Generally speaking, the lesson that we’ve learned over the last ten years is that almost no level of personal scandal will damage Trump’s support from his base,” he said.
It’s the economy…
In Dr Johnson’s view, the cost of living would have a stronger bearing on next year’s elections, which could become a referendum on Trump’s handling of the economy.
In an interview with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham earlier this week, Trump attempted to play down the extent of inflation, which has remained a constant throughout his second term.
Consumer prices in the US were up 1.7 per cent in September, compared with January (when Trump was sworn in to office), and were 3 per cent higher than in September last year.
Polls show that only 30 per cent of voters believe Trump has lived up to his promises on tackling the cost of living.
“Average Americans are seeing prices rising in the supermarket and huge hits in their monthly take-home through the surge in health insurance costs,” Dr Shanahan said.
“The US’s slightly limp economic performance will have the greatest damage to Trump and Republicans going into the midterms…. Few on Main Street are feeling the benefits of tax cuts with all of the advantage seemingly with the Wall Street suits and the tech bros.
“The blunt bludgeon of tariffs are costing Americans across the board, and the highly skilled jobs promised from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt remain a chimera. Trump’s image is as a successful businessman, but the economic evidence increasingly fails to meet the promise of his gung-ho rhetoric.”
Cracks in the Maga base
Trump is already facing criticism from high-profile figures within the Maga movement.
This month, congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a long-time outrider for the President, blasted his administration for failing to come up with its own healthcare plan, imposing tariffs were hurting US businesses and its willingness to intervene in foreign conflicts, such as Ukraine and Gaza.
“Trump’s success is in his base’s belief in him as a deal-maker. But increasingly they’re seeing him fail to deliver the deals, especially in foreign policy, that he has promised,” Dr Shanahan said.
“Maga expects America first – but even formerly staunch supporters such as Marjorie Taylor-Greene are now questioning his actions as the President finally seems to realise that complex foreign policy issues can’t be solved by a slogan and a photo-op,” he added.
Divisions among Republican could suppress turnout at the November 2026 mid-term elections, helping Democrats overturn the party’s majorities in the House and Senate.
Dr Johnson said he expected Trump to lose both chambers, leaving him a “lame duck” in the final years of his presidency, with focus shifting onto the contest for successor as leader of the Republican Party.
“Most presidents really only have about 18 months to govern through legislative means,” Dr Johnson said, adding that Trump had until summer to push through anything on par with his One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the massive piece of tax and spending legislation passed this year.
“Every second-term president faces the inevitability of becoming a lame duck. And this is a prospect I think that Trump fears enormously,” he added.
“We will be talking less about Trump, and we’ll be talking about the Republican contest to succeed him. That will be the first time since June 2015 where he is not part of that discussion as a contender. I think he’s going to find that personally challenging.”
Concerns for the President’s fitness
Trump was caught apparently sleeping during an announcement in the Oval Office last week, adding to growing speculation over the state of the 79-year-old’s health, which threatens to undermine his authority.
Only two months ago, the rumour that the President had died went viral on social media after he was seen with bruising on his hand and swollen ankles.
After Trump and his allies spent months accusing Joe Biden, now 81, of being too old to be President, it was perhaps inevitable that similar accusations would be levelled against him.
“This is the issue that brought Joe Biden down, and it will be ironic if the factors that ensured his opponent’s political demise do the same for Donald Trump,” said Dr Shanahan.
“Bruised hands, a tendency to snooze off in meetings and less coherence in his speeches could damage the Republicans across election season when they’ll want their leader to bit vigorously on the ball… Trump has never been the most coherent speaker. He’s not a cerebral president. His handlers will manage his public exposure very carefully – but never forget the damage that kind of strategy did to the Biden candidacy.”
