Despite being a current frontrunner to lead the Democrats in the next presidential election, California Governor Gavin Newsom is not the current favorite to win the New Hampshire primary – the first that will take place in 2028.
Newsom occupies second place with 15 percent of voters choosing him as their preferred presidential candidate, losing out to former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who has 19 percent, according to a new poll.
Though few delegates are chosen in the New Hampshire primary, a date for which has not yet been set, the contest receives massive media coverage, and a poor showing can cast major doubts on a campaign’s viability. Those that don’t rank highly in the Granite State may find momentum hard to build.
Joining Newsom and Buttigieg in the top three is New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has 14 percent, according to a very early snapshot in the University of New Hampshire’s poll, which was released Monday.
On the other side of the political aisle, the poll shows that Vice President JD Vance currently leads other potential Republican candidates, with a commanding 51 percent of the vote. Former presidential hopeful Nikki Haley follows, with just 9 percent.
Newsom confirmed Sunday that he was specifically considering a bid for president in 2028, but added that he was first focused on helping his party win Congressional seats in the 2026 midterms.
The Governor has risen steadily in the ranks of contenders amid his online sparring with Donald Trump earlier this year.
Outside of the top three current favorites in the New Hampshire primary are former Vice President Kamala Harris in fourth with 11 percent, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in fifth with 8 percent, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker with 6 percent.
However, despite occupying the number four spot, a breakdown of favorability shows that 17 percent of voters have expressed negative views towards Harris compared with 55 percent positive. Despite this, the former VP confirmed to the BBC in an interview last week that she was also considering a 2028 bid.
By contrast, just 6 percent view Pete Buttigieg unfavorably, while 81 percent hold positive views of the former Mayor of South Bend. Some 72 percent hold positive opinions of Newsom, and 13 percent hold unfavorable opinions.
