A “mini civil war” is threatening to erupt in Gaza after Hamas threatened to cleanse the Strip of “collaborators and outlaws”, analysts have said.
A ceasefire between Hamas and Israel – brokered by the US, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey – came into force on Friday and appears to be holding.
But pockets of violence have erupted in the devastated Strip between Hamas and rival groups, as they seek to fill the power vacuum left by the Israeli withdrawal.
Hamas has reportedly recalled 7,000 members of its internal security forces to take control as Israeli troops withdraw, warning that it would “cleanse Gaza of outlaws and collaborators” who worked with Israel.
At least 27 people were killed in a violent clash between Hamas and the Dughmush clan – a prominent family – in Gaza City this weekend, and videos circulating online appear to show Hamas fighters beating men in the street.
A prominent Palestinian influencer, Saleh Aljafarawi, who reported on the war was shot and killed while covering the fighting.
Medical sources told the BBC that 19 Dughmush clan members and eight Hamas fighters had been killed since fighting began on Saturday.
Gaza’s Hamas-run interior ministry said its forces were attempting to restore order and warned against “any armed activity outside the framework of the resistance”.
They claimed that “collaborators and informants were apprehended and arrested in Gaza City after it was proven that they were involved in spying for the enemy”, according to a Hamas-affiliated Telegram channel.
The Dughmush family, however, which has clashed with Hamas over the years, told local media that Hamas used the ceasefire as an excuse to target them by alleging collaboration with Israel, which the family has denied.
Dr HA Hellyer, senior associate fellow at Rusi, specialising in Middle East Affairs and regional security, said that Israel was likely to continue its support for anti-Hamas militant groups.
“I keep hearing this from different people connected to the ground on Gaza that there’s a mini civil war brewing between Hamas and anti-Hamas figures,” he said.
“But the anti-Hamas figures aren’t people like the Palestinian Authority, the anti-Hamas figures are collaborationist forces with the Israelis.
“From what I’m hearing, Hamas seem to also be going after traditional families and traditional tribes that simply don’t want Hamas to be in charge, not because they’re getting support from the Israelis, but that they just don’t like Hamas.”
A Palestinian pro-democracy source said that Hamas claimed their attacks on influential families were for security, but were seen to be a display of power.
The militant group has become increasingly unpopular in Gaza and its era of control is seen to be over, the political insider added.
Brigadier General (retired) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of research at Israel Defence Forces Military Intelligence and director-general of the Ministry of Strategic Affairs who is now Head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, agreed that a form of civil war was brewing in Gaza.
Kuperwasser said a “considerable amount of people in Gaza are furious at Hamas” because of the suffering they have experienced in the last two years.
“We have to remember that half of the population of Gaza, when there were elections in 2005/6 voted Fatah, not Hamas,” he said, saying that many people had allegiances to other clans or groups.
“Some of them believe that Hamas is weak now, and it’s an opportunity to put pressure on Hamas. That means Hamas has to show its not weak, that’s why they do all kinds of shows of strength and take hard measures against those who challenge them.”
However, Kuperwasser said he believed the power battle would be relatively short, and that Hamas would ultimately win.
“Hamas is weaker than it used to be, but it is still the strongest of the groups,” he said.
This process will delay the reconstruction of Gaza, Kuperwasser said, saying that Israel would not proceed with the peace deal if Hamas refuses to disarm.
Dr Ahron Bregman, a former IDF officer and Knesset parliamentary assistant who is now an academic at King’s College London, said the clashes were Hamas’s attempts to reassert its control over Gaza.
“Hamas is sending a clear message: we are back. We are the boss. And if you co-operated with the enemy, Israel we will deal with you,” he said.
Bregman said the same situation had followed other conflicts, including after the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, when many of those who had worked with Israel fled the country as Hezbollah attempted to hunt them down.
Israel has allowed some collaborators to enter the Israeli-controlled areas of Gaza, behind the so-called Yellow Line, which may provide a “temporary solution”, Bregman said.
Long term, Israel may agree to resettle people who supported it during the conflict, he added.
Kuperwasser said that it was too early to say whether this would be offered because Israel currently maintained around half of the Strip, and that many groups did not need Israeli support to fight Hamas.
Hellyer said that it might suit Israel for conflict to continue in Gaza because it enabled the state to maintain a presence in the Strip, something Palestinian pro-democracy voices agreed with.
If violence persists, it seems unlikely that the peacekeeping force planned by Donald Trump – the International Stability Force (ISF) will be able to take over, Hellyer said, and the IDF is not required to withdrew until the ISF is present, according to Trump’s plan.
“If that half is uncontrollable, then the other half doesn’t need to be handed over, so just becomes an expanded buffer zone,” Hellyer said.
The Israeli Government was approached for comment.
