Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza, including a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
After two years of devastating conflict that has claiming thousands of lives, things now appear to be moving quickly. Plans were announced last Monday, discussed in Egypt this week, and agreed by the end of Wednesday, bringing hope back to the war-weary region.
As it stands, there is agreement to the release of all hostages, alive and dead, and the withdrawal of Israeli troops to an agreed-upon line.
These crucial agreements are the start of a potential road to peace. The Israeli government faces enormous pressure at home to bring back the hostages, and the people of Gaza have sustained catastrophic losses over two years of war.
But sticking points remain. It is not clear who exactly will run Gaza if and when the fighting stops. Israel will not leave holes in its security, and Hamas will have to agree to its own effective dissolution in Gaza.
Returning the hostages
Israel will first have to withdraw its troops in Gaza to the agreed line, a senior White House official told CBS News. They said this would likely happen within 24 hours.
Then, Hamas will have 72 hours to release the living hostages, likely starting on Monday, according to the official. A source briefed on details of the ceasefire told Reuters that the hostages may be released as early as Saturday and by Monday at the latest.
Israel says there are 48 hostages still in Gaza, and 20 are believed to still be alive. Sources told CNN that the Israeli government is aware that Hamas may not know the location of, or is unable to retrieve, the remains of some of the 28 deceased hostages still in Gaza.
Another complication for Hamas is that freeing the hostages leaves them without leverage in negotiations. If Hamas frees its captives and lays down its weapons, it relies on good faith and the commitment of foreign parties to ensure the terms are upheld.
Dr Andreas Krieg, associate professor of defence studies at King’s College London, told The Independent: “Trust is thin after months of failed efforts and violence during talks. Continued strikes while delegations are in Egypt make it harder to trigger a day and hour for the ceasefire to start. Any lethal incident before Friday could prompt one side to pause, insist on new safeguards or walk back consent.
“Negotiators are still working through the order of steps on a first phase that ties a ceasefire to an initial Israeli pullback and a hostage-prisoner exchange. If either side questions who moves first, or if names on the exchange lists cannot be verified in time, implementation will slip.”
Support for the agreement
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to Trump’s plan but Israel’s government needs to vote on the terms on Thursday.
A majority of Israelis now say that the time has come to end the war. But they disagree on whether the main goal of the war should be to bring home the hostages or to vanquish Hamas, according to a recent poll. Netanyahu faces similar pressure in the Knesset.
In theory, Trump’s plan should answer both concerns. It draws a roadmap for immediately returning the hostages still in Gaza, and by removing Hamas from power, it should win support from the right.
In practice, the politics remain fractured. While lawmakers on both sides of the Knesset voiced support, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said his far-right Religious Zionist party would not vote in support, warning against releasing Palestinian prisoners he described as “the next generation of terrorist leaders, who will do everything to continue spilling rivers of Jewish blood”.
In January, a vote did manage to overcome opposition from the far-right to secure an armistice and the exchange of hostages and prisoners. Crucially, negotiations on moving to stage two did not occur until after stage one was planned to expire. Fighting resumed in March. A temporary truce in November 2023 also lasted just a week before collapsing.
Ousting Hamas does not guarantee watertight security, and those in Israel will still need tangible assurances that peace will not only be immediate but lasting.
Dr Krieg said: “The agreement is not yet over the line politically in Israel. It still requires security-cabinet and then full cabinet approval, and at least one senior coalition figure has already signalled opposition. A late revolt by hardliners or a demand to amend the text would push the timetable back.”
“External politics add risk,” he added. “The United States is pushing for quick progress, but Israeli coalition dynamics, as well as internal debates within Hamas, can still trump mediator timelines. Even with public endorsements from Western leaders, last-minute domestic pressures can slow a deal that looks close on paper.”
What comes after Hamas?
The original plan describes a transitional government – “technocratic and apolitical” – managing the overall running of Gaza, overseen by an international body called the “Board of Peace”.
Ultimately, the interim government could be replaced by the Palestinian Authority, subject to certain “reforms”. Questions remain around the future of a Palestinian state. More enduring questions around Palestinian sovereignty are also not spelled out.
Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, said that he hoped the ceasefire would be “a prelude to reaching a permanent political solution”, leading to the establishment of an independent state.
The form this takes will matter across the border. In 2012, 61 per cent of Israelis supported two states. Now, around one in five do.
Hamas has also suggested they would retain a role in negotiations over the long term future of Gaza. This leaves space for future disagreement – though, again, Hamas will have little leverage after releasing the remaining hostages.
Detail on the group’s disarmament is still lacking. In the past, Hamas has said it would only disarm once a Palestinian state had been secured. Over the weekend, Netanyahu said Hamas would be disarmed and Gaza demilitarised “either the easy way or the hard way”.
“The deal marks a significant milestone, yet it falls short of ending the conflict,” Dr Ozcelik said. “Sustaining a ceasefire will demand constant vigilance, confidence-building and the continued engagement of the US, UK and their allies. The ceasefire may have been won, but the hard work of building the peace is far from done.
“This will require both sides to make difficult—and in Hamas’s case, existential—compromises.”
Fragile optimism
The people of Israel and Gaza have a long memory of conflict and there are few alive today who remember a period of enduring peace.
Trump’s plan to end the war is not the first. Foreign onlookers have submitted numerous drafts in recent months, hoping to learn from and overcome the failures of past truces.
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told The Independent: “There is much the deal does not address—an ambiguity likely designed to preserve Israel’s operational flexibility.
“In the first stage, success will depend on the return of all Israeli hostages and the release of agreed Palestinian prisoners. Over the longer term, the process is set to grow more fraught, with milestones such as the demilitarisation of Hamas posing a major test, which Israel regards as pivotal to the pace and sequencing of its phased withdrawal.
“Any breach, or claims of one, could swiftly unravel the ceasefire, providing grounds for a renewed cycle of violence.”
