The one question for supporters of Robert Jenrick in the Tory party is not if but when they should make a move to oust Kemi Badenoch.
But luckily for them, they saw a trial run of one of their potential strategies at the Labour conference which led to a late change in their plans to use this conference in Manchester as a platform.
And so the message to Mr Jenrick from his supporters going into this conference was “don’t do an Andy Burnham”.
Labour’s mayor for Greater Manchester has actually been speaking at the Tory conference on housing and other matters in a fairly disobliging manner about prime minister Sir Keir Starmer.
But his attempt to turn the Labour conference into a platform for a push to replace Starmer badly backfired, largely united the party around the PM (at least on the surface) and ended up with Mr Burnham slinking out before the leader’s speech.
An ally of Mr Jenrick told The Independent: “We saw what happened to Burnham and the last thing Robert needed was to repeat that mistake.”
They noted how empty the Conservative conference is, as well as the lack of energy and enthusiasm from corporate sponsors or even members.
“Much better to let Kemi [Badenoch] own this,” they added. “Let her own the terrible polling, the pain and the empty floors and just let things play out.”
Another added: “The data will be what strangles her [Ms Badenoch’s] leadership. The constant low polls. He [Jenrick] is coming. He doesn’t need to make a move.”
For his part Mr Jenrick is being a loyal member of the shadow cabinet both in public and private events.
But he still hints at a failure of leadership without being explicit.
It is clear that his formidable wife Michal Berkner, a high-powered corporate lawyer, remains a strong support figure in his ambitions, apparently reading online comments about him to him at home to motivate him.
In conversation with The Spectator, he towed the party line (just!) saying the Tory Party needs to change and it has got to “get going” – but steered clear from all out criticism of Ms Badenoch.
He said: “I think the most important thing that the Conservative Party should do now is to change.
“We suffered our worst ever election defeat just a year and a bit ago, and if the party is going to have a future, it’s going to have to change very profoundly, because there are still millions of people in our country who are angry and frustrated and disillusioned with our party.”
He added: “Unless we show that we’ve changed, then we are going to be in a difficult place as a party.”
Asked whether he is saying the Tories have not moved fast enough in Ms Badenoch’s first year in office, he said: “I think it’s very tough after you’ve just suffered your worst ever election, because it was never going to be easy.
“We have got a mountain to climb, but we’ve got to get going. Put our foot on the pedal.”
But it does not escape notice that the only events drawing massive interest and packed rooms at the Tory conference are Mr Jenrick’s fringe events.
One had a queue stretching around the building.
His main potential rival Sir James Cleverly’s fringes are also filling out although the conference hall was half empty when he gave his speech with someone asleep at the back.
And in the sense of despondency, Tory members are willing to voice what Mr Jenrick is keeping schtum about.
At one fringe on Monday, Mr Jenrick refused to say if the polls would be higher for the Tories if he had won in the run-off against Ms Badenoch last year.
But members of the audience started shouting out: “Higher! Higher!”
Mr Jenrick, wherever he goes, gives off energy and enthusiasm at a conference lacking in both. He looks sharp and ready, at least in his own mind, to lead.
But he knows that by biding his time he will not be tarnished as the man who wielded the knife and may be asked to lead by popular acclaim.
