Sir Keir Starmer is under the heaviest pressure of his premiership.
More than a year after entering Downing Street, he faces a Labour Party increasingly uncertain about his leadership, a resurgent Nigel Farage threatening to seize the political initiative, and deepening rows over policy and personnel.
Angela Rayner’s departure from government has intensified speculation about Starmer’s grip, while allies and rivals alike float names such as Andy Burnham and Lucy Powell as potential successors.
New polling shows Labour slipping behind Reform, and questions over Morgan McSweeney’s undeclared donations have added to the sense of drift.
Amid U-turns on welfare reform and the fallout from Peter Mandelson’s chaotic Washington posting, MPs and activists are asking whether Starmer can survive – and if not, who might credibly replace him.
In a recent Q&A with Independent readers, I tackled your questions on Andy Burnham’s chances – and why he hasn’t learned the lessons of Liz Truss; on Labour’s digital ID plan – and whether it really matters; on Reform’s rise – and why the boats may decide the next election.
Here are some of them – and my answers:
Q: Why wasn’t digital ID in Labour’s manifesto?
Kingswood
A: ID cards have long been quite popular, although I don’t think most people feel very strongly about them. The most recent YouGov poll, which asked about the Keir Starmer plan, found (just) more opposed than in favour, which suggests that people don’t like anything he proposes.
Q: What safeguards would stop digital ID being used for discrimination?
Bob
A: I am not too worried about that aspect of the plan. My view is that future megalomaniacs and would-be dictators will have plenty of means to do bad things whether we have a formal government digital ID or not. Look at what Donald Trump is doing in the US, where they don’t have unified government IDs.
Q: Does Starmer really understand the threat from Reform?
Jim987
A: I think he is beginning to. I don’t think it is a matter of Reform’s propaganda machine, though. It is the reality of the small boats and the asylum hotels. If the government can stop the boats and close the hotels, that will give it the chance of countering the threat from Reform. Then I think Labour can win a contest against Nigel Farage.
Q: Is the ID card plan just a dead cat to distract from Starmer’s leadership crisis?
Jason O’Rourke
A: I said so in a recent article, although by that I meant only that it was an attempt to set the media agenda, which all governments do. This one was more successful than many.
Q: Why don’t Reform and the Tories get the same criticism as Labour or the Lib Dems?
RaptorRed
A: I don’t think Farage gets positive publicity from all media. You may not be a frequent reader of The Independent!
PS. I was interested in yet another variant of the Fabian Society conspiracy theory in your question. I think this originated in the fact that David Bean, the judge in court case about the asylum hotel in Epping, had been chair of the Fabian Society a long time ago. The multifaceted conspiracy theory is quite the most interesting thing that has happened to the Fabian Society since the time of Sidney and Beatrice Webb!
Q: In what scenario can Labour win, without opponents imploding?
Xmachina
A: I have written about this for The Independent today. My answer is that if Shabana Mahmood can stop the boats, Labour has a chance. If not, not. Stopping the boats means cutting the numbers coming uninvited across the Channel to fewer than 10,000 a year, I think, compared with 45,000 a year now. The trouble is that no one knows how this could be done, except by ramping up the one in, one out pilot scheme to the point where all or nearly all small-boat arrivals are returned to France. If that can be done, the traffic will cease, but I am not sure the French will continue to cooperate with the scheme at that scale.
There must be other ways of stopping the boats, though, and in my article today I come down on the side of thinking that Mahmood will find them – because she has to.
Q: What impact would a new deputy leader have on Starmer?
Last of the Boomers
A: It is unhelpful to have a cabinet minister you have sacked elected as deputy leader of the party, but it is more a symptom of Keir Starmer’s existing problems than a cause of new ones.
Q: Who would be chancellor if Burnham became PM? Is he serious about the bond markets?
PaulK
A: I don’t think it is very likely that Andy Burnham will become PM, but the question is not so much about individuals as about the policy.
When Burnham said, “We’ve got to get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets,” he revealed that he had learned nothing from Liz Truss’s experience. It is the same with all those Labour people urging Rachel Reeves to relax her fiscal rules.
The fiscal rules are not some arbitrary constraint imposed by the chancellor on herself for fun: you can quibble with the details, but the essence is that they explain how government debt will be kept within sustainable bounds over the next few years. If the financial markets don’t believe that will happen, it will become more expensive for the government to borrow.
Q: When will Ed Miliband be sacked and replaced with someone sensible?
Bigman
A: Well, Keir Starmer tried to move Ed Miliband in this month’s reshuffle. I think it would cause problems with the Labour membership to move him against his will, but I think Miliband realises that anything that adds further to consumer electricity and gas bills would make him vulnerable, so there is a kind of stand-off at the moment.
These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul at 4pm BST on Saturday 27 September. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.
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