The President seems enthusiastic about a proposal to give Blair a key role in post-war Gaza
On paper, Tony Blair represents everything Donald Trump stands against. He’s a former leader of a centre-left party and a paid-up member of the global elite.
He was Bill Clinton’s buddy in the 1990s, and George W Bush’s partner in the War on Terror – making him a key player in conflicts Trump’s “America First” philosophy directly opposes. Blair is also a consummate insider, in contrast with Trump who presents himself as an outsider and proud of it.
Despite all this, the US President seems to be enthusiastic about a proposal to make Blair the temporary leader of an administration overseeing Gaza, as part of a mooted peace plan for the troubled region.
Under the scheme, Blair would be the chair of the Gaza International Transitional Authority, which would oversee Gaza for an unspecified number of years, until it could be returned to the control of the Palestinian Authority.
To call the plan controversial would be an understatement – but compared with some US or Israeli proposals in recent months, some of which involved the mass relocation of Palestinians to turn the Gaza Strip into a resort, it is downright moderate. So what has moved Trump to grant his blessing to a figure like Blair?
Partly, it is testament to Blair’s willingness to play Trump’s game. The playbook to getting into Trump’s good books is hardly a complicated one: you must flatter him, you must engage on his terms, and you must make friends with his friends. It helps a great deal if you’re rich and influential, too.
Blair ticks all these boxes. He’s well-connected, has made millions for himself through his business dealings, and has raised hundreds of millions to fund his Tony Blair Institute. Blair has also befriended and worked with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner – especially on Middle Eastern issues – over several years. He has holidayed with billionaire tech mogul and Trump friend Larry Ellison.
Blair has also visited Trump personally on several occasions, and made his Institute available to consider the more radical of Trump’s Gaza plans. In short, Blair has worked his way in and supplicated himself in ways that Trump requires.
Trump is still, at his heart, a real estate man, and he loves a trophy asset – something beloved he can parade around, with himself as the new owner. This was one of his big motivations for purchasing his Florida club Mar-a-Lago, which was once bequeathed to the government to officially serve as a “Winter White House”.
Blair is the political version of that kind of real estate trophy. He’s a man who was once a world leader now seeking a job that is, to a large extent, in Trump’s gift. By waving around someone with Blair’s history and profile, Trump can make himself look even more influential and important than he does already.
Even better, should the plan come together and Blair actually takes up the role – which is still somewhat unlikely – Trump has the ultimate insurance if things don’t work out. He would be able to jettison Blair as soon as the going got tough, saying that he gave him a chance but he just couldn’t get it done. Sad!
No one would be able to convincingly stick a failure in Gaza onto Trump in a way that mattered politically, especially given Blair has substantial international profile in his own right. He is prominent, far from being a member of Trump’s inner circle, and therefore represents a no-lose bet.
If it works, Trump can take the credit. If it doesn’t, he has a ready-made scapegoat.
Once you look at it this way, Trump’s enthusiasm for Blair is less of a mystery than Blair’s own willingness to take up this kind of role under these circumstances – especially as Benjamin Netanyahu is said to be profoundly unenthusiastic about Blair taking the job.
There is a generous explanation for Blair’s motivations, and any number of less generous ones. The best case for Blair is that he is genuinely deeply connected to the region and has devoted much of his time in recent years to it – and might feel that given the other candidates Trump might pick for such a role, he has something of a duty to step up. Perhaps he could make the best of a bad situation.
That’s the generous case. Others suggest that Blair’s long-extant messianic streak has finally swept him away and into the Holy Land, or that his desire to be in proximity to power again has blinded him to the realities of the situation.
Real cynics would suggest that Blair sees a chance to renew his contact book. Those still furious with Blair over Iraq could even argue he was simply returning to form, coming to heel at the instruction of a US President.
Before Blair was ever accused of being Bush’s poodle, he had forged a close relationship with Bill Clinton. Being friends with US presidents is just something he does. Doubtless, Trump can see the value in that.
