The fertility rate for England and Wales has plummeted to a new record low after falling for three consecutive years, new data from the Office of National Statistics reveals, with births barely outpacing deaths.
The total fertility rate – defined as the average number of children women would expect to have across their childbearing life – stood at 1.41 in 2024, down from 1.42 in 2023 and the lowest levels since records began nearly a century ago in 1938.
Natural population growth has been in decline for years, with death rates expected to overtake births from 2030.
But migration into England and Wales offsets an otherwise-decreasing population, and means that the population grew by around 706,000 in the year to mid-2024.
The number of births last year actually increased slightly, from 591,072 to 594,677. But overall population growth meant that fertility rates still fell.
The data revealed huge variation in fertility rates across different parts of England and Wales — Luton having the highest rates (2.0) and City of London having the lowest (0.32).
But all areas have a below-stable fertility rate, with a rate of 2.1 needed for the population to remain naturally stable over time.
Separate data also showed Scotland’s fertility dropped to a new low of 1.25 last year.
Though UK-wide fertility rates for last year have not yet been published, figures from the previous year reveal that national fertility rates are dropping more than any other G7 nation.
In 2023, the UK’s fertility rate was 1.44 children per woman, a 25 per cent fall since 2010.
Other G7 countries like Italy and Japan still have lower fertility rates, but their decline has been more gradual than the UK’s.
Women in the UK are also having their first children at an older age.
In the year 2000, first-time mothers in England and Wales were just over 26 years old on average. This has increased by three years, with the average woman now being over 29 years old when having her first child.
In London, the average first-time mother is 31 years old – while those having a second child in the capital are likely to be over 33 years old.
Where are fertility rates the lowest?
Fertility rates show significant variation across England and Wales, with the lowest at 0.32 children per woman and the highest at 2.0.
Areas of higher fertility rates are concentrated around Manchester, the Birmingham area, and areas spread across the south east of England.
Central London authorities have some of the lowest fertility rates, hovering around one child per woman; while areas further out see higher rates, like Barking and Dagenham (1.99).
In fact, many areas of the UK saw fertility rates drop last year – with over half (185 out of 317) local authorities facing a decline, and just one third seeing an increase.
For example Maldon, in Essex, saw fertility rates drop from 1.59 to 1.37 in just one year.
Birmingham, on the other hand, saw one of the biggest jumps, from 1.61 to 1.75 children per woman.
Concerns of population decline
Earlier this year, an Ipsos poll for The Independent revealed that 4 in 10 adults are putting off having children, with financial pressures being a top concern.
Rates have fallen behind the EU, and women are having children later in life.
This is a concern for Reform leader Nigel Farage, whose recent plans to slash migration and fast-track deportation could come at odds with Britain’s dwindling fertility rates.
In February, Mr Farage pledged he would abolish the two-child benefit cap if Reform came into power, as part of a “180-degree shift” to reverse low birth rates.
There were around 568,000 deaths in England and Wales last year, according to ONS figures, and just 594,000 births; meaning that the population would have seen scarce growth if it weren’t for net migration, which added 431,000 people in the same period.
A Reform spokesperson recently admitted to Politico that drastic cuts to immigration would require boosting birth rates to avoid a “population crisis”.
“To fix that population crisis, we’re trying to encourage British people already here to have kids,” a spokesperson told Politico last week.
