Students who moved from primary to secondary school in the middle of the pandemic will collect their GCSE results on Thursday, with more than one in five entries expected to score the top grades.
Pupils across England, Wales and Northern Ireland are receiving GCSE and level 2 vocational and technical qualification (VTQ) grades to help them progress on to sixth form, college or training.
Teenagers could face more competition for sixth form places this summer, it has been suggested.
Last year, more than a fifth (21.8 per cent) of UK GCSE entries were awarded the top grades – at least a 7 or an A grade, down from 22.0 per cent in 2023.
But it remained higher than in 2019 – the year before the Covid-19 pandemic – when 20.8 per cent of UK GCSE entries scored the top grades.
In England, Ofqual brought GCSE grading standards back in line with pre-Covid levels in 2023, and exam regulators in Wales and Northern Ireland returned to pre-pandemic grading last year.
The move came after Covid-19 led to an increase in top GCSE grades in 2020 and 2021, with results based on teacher assessments instead of exams.
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research (CEER) at the University of Buckingham, has suggested that the proportion of GCSE entries scoring the top grades this summer could be similar to last year but remain higher than in 2019.
Last week, the proportion of A-level entries awarded top grades surpassed pre-pandemic highs.
This summer, more than 95,000 pupils in Greater Manchester and the West Midlands will receive their results using an app as part of a government pilot.
The Education Record, which will bring pupils’ GCSE exam results and certificates into one app, aims to help young people when applying to further education, apprenticeships or employment.
Many of the pupils who are receiving their GCSE results this summer were in Year 6 when schools closed because of the pandemic.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said this cohort of students – who moved from primary to secondary school in the middle of the pandemic – had shown “remarkable resilience” despite the disruption to their education.
Education leaders warned they had faced a series of challenges – including school attendance issues and cost-of-living pressures.
There has been a rise in requests from young people who want extra time in their exams – and who want to sit in rooms away from the main exam hall – since the pandemic, it has been suggested.
Bill Watkin, chief executive of the Sixth Form Colleges Association (SFCA), said: “I think we’re going to go on experiencing the negative impact of Covid-19 and the cost-of-living situation for a number of years still.”
He added that there are more young people with special educational needs and disabilities (Send) which “makes it difficult” for schools and colleges to accommodate all their needs.
Colleges have been faced with “large numbers” of students who are calling for their own room, invigilator, and extra time to do exams, Mr Watkin said.
He added: “It’s very difficult to provide for all of them.
“There just aren’t enough rooms or enough invigilators and that’s not going to get easier anytime in the immediate future.”
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “This cohort of GCSE students have undoubtedly been affected by the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic earlier in their education.
“It is likely that the impact will have been particularly severe on those students from disadvantaged backgrounds.”
He added: “Schools have moved heaven and earth to support all their students, but the previous government did not put enough focus or investment into educational recovery.
“We are likely to see inequities in GCSE outcomes between regions and different groups of students.”
Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, has called for a national corps of undergraduate tutors to help pupils improve their literacy and numeracy in school.
He said: “Every August we accept a grand illusion that GCSEs are a level playing field.
“In reality, they are a mirror of the deeply divided society we’ve created, a measure of how much extra support students receive as much as their academic capability.”
He added: “Stark socio-economic divides in GCSE results are a legacy of the Covid disruption and the crisis in school absenteeism which threaten to scar a whole generation.”
Prof Elliot Major has suggested competition for the most selective sixth forms will be “fiercer than ever” this year as more families may seek out state sector places after the VAT change on private school fees introduced in January.
Meanwhile, Mr Watkin said he expected sixth form college admissions to become “more competitive” because of a rising 16-year-old population.
The government launched a review of curriculum and assessment in schools and colleges in July last year.
The independent review is expected to consider whether there are opportunities “to reduce the overall volume of assessment” at GCSE.
Ahead of the final report from the review, which is due in the autumn, headteachers’ unions have called for the burden of assessment to be reduced at GCSE to alleviate some of the pressures on young people.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT, said: “The volume of content, the reliance on final exams, and the average of 30+ hours of exams per student at the end of key stage 4 are all excessive and unnecessary.
“We must move away from an almost exclusive reliance on fully linear, terminal exams, and instead allow modular assessments and reintroduce more non-exam assessment and project-based assessments, in order to complement exams and better assess what students know and can do.”
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said: “These young people moved from primary to secondary school right in the midst of the pandemic, showing remarkable resilience despite the disruption to those crucial years of education.
“Their options now are better than ever, whether it’s A-levels, T-levels, or an apprenticeship.
“While it’s a moment to celebrate, today’s results will expose the inequalities that are entrenched in our education system.
“Too many young people continue to have their life chances defined by their background and where they live, and while we are beginning to see promising signs in critical areas like attendance and teacher recruitment, I am absolutely determined to deliver on our Plan for Change and truly break the link between background and success once and for all.”
Sir Ian Bauckham, chief regulator at Ofqual, said: “Results day is an important milestone for students.
“While there will inevitably be nerves as students receive their results, they should be proud of their achievements and can be confident that their grades will be widely recognised by employers, schools and colleges.
“Today’s grades will open up opportunities for students as they move on to their next stage.”
