After the President signs the final bill, Republicans will keep wondering if their massive roll of the dice may eventually see them driven them out of office
Donald Trump is anticipating an extra-special celebration in Washington this Independence Day, on 4 July.
His demand that lawmakers approve his 900-page “Big Beautiful Bill” appears to have struck a chord with enough Republicans to get it over the line in the House of Representatives. The Senate approved the bill – albeit via the casting vote of Vice President JD Vance – earlier this week. Trump can confidently expect to sign his signature piece of legislation on America’s 249th birthday.
But by the time America’s 250th birthday rolls around, how will Republicans feel about the votes that many of them have warily cast this week? Each of them knows that their fate is now entirely in Trump’s hands, and dependent upon the real-world impact of the most controversial tax-and-spending “megabill” the nation has ever seen.
By design, the legislation was envisaged as Trump’s one-stop-shop to counterbalance the punishing tariffs of his global trade war with a broader economic plan that the White House insists will see the country boom. In Trump’s telling, Republicans who oppose the plan on the basis that it will grow the deficit by another $3.3trn dollars are traitors. “FOR REPUBLICANS, THIS SHOULD BE AN EASY YES VOTE”, Trump thundered on social media in the early hours of Thursday morning.
“Largest Tax Cuts in History and a Booming Economy….What are the Republicans waiting for???” he asked rhetorically via his Truth Social account. “MAGA IS NOT HAPPY AND IT’S COSTING YOU VOTES!!!” he warned wavering lawmakers who – in many cases – object on principle to ballooning deficits that will pass yet more of the country’s problems on to the next generation.
Elon Musk continues to lead the charge against the President’s plan. He has warned the legislation will lead to the evisceration of millions of jobs, and prove “extremely crazy and destructive” by fueling public debt.
Earlier this week, Trump threatened a government review of Musk’s federally-funded contracts and even flirted with the idea of deporting the richest man in the world, after the Tesla and SpaceX owner made fresh efforts to separate Republican lawmakers from their own President.
While some Republicans are deficit hawks and echo Musk’s concerns, others have threatened to derail the bill over what they deem to be insufficient cuts in public spending. The White House has spent countless hours over the last fortnight trying to win over lawmakers in each camp.
Even those aligning themselves with the President’s plan know that their support is a massive hostage to fortune. Analysis by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office shows that the plan will strip up to 12 million Americans of their health insurance and could lead lower-income Americans to be worse off by $1,600 per year – equivalent to almost 4 per cent of their annual income.
The legislation guts Medicaid, the government-funded healthcare programme for lower-income Americans. Back in their home states, many lawmakers have already received an earful about Trump’s threat to add millions of people to the ranks of America’s uninsured.
If the worst-case healthcare scenarios prove accurate, Republicans facing re-election in next year’s mid-term elections could find the “Big Beautiful Bill” rapidly becomes a massive ball-and-chain around their ankles.
Trump is telling them not to panic, and not to believe the naysayers. He argues that the bill will create so much economic stimulus, out-of-work Americans will find new jobs that will, in turn, provide them with health insurance. (In the United States, 98 per cent of larger employers offer access to health insurance as an employee benefit.)
But the bill takes other steps to put the poorest Americans in jeopardy. It will introduce new thresholds for food stamps and other nutrition programmes that lie at the heart of America’s already-flimsy social safety net.
Four million Americans are expected to lose their eligibility for vouchers that the government provides so the least affluent can purchase basic staples at their local supermarkets.
Simultaneously, the legislation punishes firms developing clean energy solutions, stripping wind and solar of tax credits introduced during the Biden administration.
A second proposal to tax clean energy projects has been removed from the version of the bill being considered by the House. But industry analysts say the final legislation will put jobs at risk within the clean energy sector, leading to increased costs for Americans who hope to move away from their dependence on fossil fuels.
For America’s wealthy, the bill is a bonanza. In a move welcomed by the Republicans’ corporate backers, it extends more than $4trn in tax credits to higher-income Americans.
For the military industry especially, it will usher in a new golden age, with $150bn earmarked for defence, and $129bn devoted to funding the President’s programme of mass deportations.
Under normal circumstances, the legislation would have been sent to Capitol Hill on a piecemeal basis by the White House, but Trump – never a man to get mired in detail – wanted everything done at once.
He is on the cusp of achieving his aim. But after he applies his trademark felt-tipped pen to the final bill, signing it into law, Republicans will continue to wonder whether their massive roll of the dice may eventually see them driven them out of office.
