In the early hours of Tuesday morning, Trump took to his Truth Social platform, once again suggesting he was prepared to inflict serious financial harm on his on-and-off-again ally Elon Musk.
Following a relative warming of relations since a spectacular fallout last month, Musk on Monday took aim once more at Trump’s hallmark One Big Beautiful Bill — which passed the Senate on Tuesday afternoon.
The billionaire claimed the legislation, proposing a series of tax breaks and spending cuts, would cause the “BIGGEST DEBT ceiling increase in HISTORY”.
Posting on his own platform, X, the Tesla chief executive vowed to unseat politicians who supported the bill if it was “the last thing I do on this Earth”, later adding that if the “insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day”.
Trump responded, asking if the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) — the agency formerly headed up by Musk to slash federal spending — should “take a good, hard, look” at state money spent on the electric vehicle (EV) subsidies, something that benefits Tesla at present.
But a subsidy cut is not the only weapon in Trump’s armoury. The fortune of the world’s richest man is also tied to a number of lucrative US government contracts. Furthermore, Trump’s personal attacks and powerful allies affect Musk’s wealth in real time.
Then on Tuesday, Trump upped the stakes again, saying he would “take a look” at deporting the South African-born Musk.
Experts tell The i Paper all the ways Trump can hit Musk the hardest – and who stands the best chance in each fight.
Deporting Musk
Asked by reporters if he was willing to deport Musk, who was born in South Africa, Trump said he would “have to take a look”.
He is unable to deport a naturalised US citizen, as is the case with Musk, unless his administration is willing to explore some extreme avenues, including accusing Musk of having committed treason.
Trump has shown willingness in the past to “push the boundaries”, particularly with regards to immigration and deportation, Max Yoeli, senior research fellow in think-tank Chatham House’s Americas programme, told The i Paper.
Trying to deport him would be no easy task, though. “He [Musk] has resources at his disposal that the average person facing immigration control could not even imagine,” Yoeli said, including “personal security and incredible lawyers”.
Dr Gordon Fletcher, an associate dean at the University of Salford Business School, told The i Paper that deporting a naturalised US citizen could even make Musk “a poster child (somewhat improbably) for the widespread campaign against” Trump’s hardline stance on immigration.
“The damage to Trump would be greater than to a billionaire, who can conceivably live anywhere in the world,” he added.
Tesla subsidies
In his Truth Social post, Trump said that Doge could review subsidies to Musk’s companies. He said: “Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far… No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have Doge take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!”
Currently, a government credit gives any American buying an EV a $7,500 (£5,442) discount, a policy introduced by President Joe Biden under his Inflation Reduction Act.
A strong indication of how important this subsidy is to Tesla, and therefore Musk’s fortune, is how the firm’s share price seems to correlate with the state of the founder’s relationship with Trump.
When their feud began – and Musk accused Trump of being named in the paedophile Jeffrey Epstein files – Tesla shares plummeted by 14 per cent.
On Tuesday, shares were down 5 per cent upon opening after Trump posted: “Elon Musk knew, long before he so strongly Endorsed me for President, that I was strongly against the EV Mandate… Electric cars are fine, but not everyone should be forced to own one. Elon may get more subsidies than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies.”
The size of Musk’s wealth, estimated by Bloomberg to be currently well over $300bn (£217bn), is closely related to the success of Tesla stock.
Musk owns 12 per cent of the car manufacturing company. This is no small sum considering Tesla is one of the world’s most valuable firms in terms of market capitalisation.
Under Trump’s new One Big Beautiful Bill, which is working its way through the Senate, EV credits are set to be cut.
Apparently irked by this potential change in legislation, Musk took to X last month, warning that axing the credit “would threaten America’s energy independence and the reliability of our grid”.
Yoeli said that even without directly pulling federal money out from Musk’s companies, Trump could delay his business deals or tie Musk up in various regulatory issues, “given his business are in highly regulated sectors”.
“Trump has ample tools to harm Musk with,” Yoeli added.
State contracts
An estimated $22bn (£16bn) would be at stake if Trump decided to end contracts linked to Musk’s spacecraft company, SpaceX.
Musk’s vast stake in SpaceX is thought to be roughly as valuable as his share of Tesla – depending on when you measure stock prices.
James Hayton, a professor of entrepreneurship and innovation at the University of Warwick, told The i Paper that “the damage to Musk’s businesses and personal wealth” if SpaceX’s US government contracts were cancelled “would be significant”.
These contracts, he explained, include supplying costly military hardware, facilitating some of Nasa’s landmark missions and supplying services to the International Space Station (ISS).
However, Hayton warned, the blowback on Trump’s administration to end those agreements has the potential to be just as bad for him as SpaceX.
“If Nasa cancel the contracts, they will effectively stop all work on the ISS or have to contract with the Russian space agency as that would be the only current alternative,” he said.
“Nasa could [also] be told to pause other contracts such as the Moon-focused Human Landing Systems, but this would effectively stop or significantly delay the project to develop a base on the Moon, which is already behind schedule.”
SpaceX also launches US military satellites, something else Trump could put an end to. That would spark serious national security and defence concerns because Musk’s company “has significant capacity for satellite launch that the US military needs access to”.
Another plug Trump could pull would be on Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX that provides internet access using low-orbit satellites – but Musk could still rely on his other customers in the UK, Canada and dozens of other countries in Europe, Africa and Asia.
The limitations of Trump following through with his threats, and the harm that might do to the US government, may not be enough to stop the famously mercurial president, though.
“Trump could be Trump and decide it is better to shoot himself in the foot just to save face in his tiff with Musk,” Hayton said.
Personal branding
Yoeli pointed out that the president had “significant levers of power” and had previously “shown a willingness to direct investigations at his perceived enemies”.
Trump could dig into claims made by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal involving Musk’s alleged drug use while at the White House, which raised questions about Nasa’s requirements for its contractors to maintain a drug-free workforce.
Musk responded to those allegations in May, posting on X: “To be clear, I am NOT taking drugs.”
The tech mogul does have the ability to fight back. He has already threatened to form a third political party and fund anti-Trump Republican candidates, which poses an “immediate risk” to Trump “for the mid-term election results”, Fletcher said.
And Musk is likely to take full advantage of one of his most powerful weapons in his war with Trump: X, through which he “commands attention and has built up his personal image”, Yoeli explained.
“Trump knows he is not he only one with cards to play,” said Yoeli, which may also explain why he has so far been unwilling to follow through with his veiled threats.
Fletcher agreed: “If their current fallout over the Big Beautiful Bill was a card game, it is Musk who appears to hold the best combination of winning hands.
“By being outside politics and ineligible to become president, he has less to lose with the unconstrained resources to control and shift debate as he decides.”
