Defence experts tell The i Paper why the chances of conflict boiling over into wider war remain slim
Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s support of Iran does not mean the Middle East conflict will balloon into a full scale global war, defence experts have said.
Following dozens of missile attacks by Israel on military commanders and nuclear scientists in Iran, global tensions have risen as allies of both nations look on as a decades-long proxy conflict boils over.
Despite strong rhetoric from both sides – and US President Donald Trump – leading British defence experts have said that the chances of the regional conflict boiling over into a global one are still slim.
Russia has sought to tone down the rhetoric, with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov telling his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Saturday that Moscow condemns Israel’s use of force against Iran and is ready to help de-escalate the situation.
John Foreman, the former UK defence attache to Moscow and Kyiv told The i Paper that “we’re not on the edge of WW3.”
(Photo: Anadolu)
Russia strategic position has weakened
While Russia and Iran had co-operated on military technology such as drones, Russia directly supporting Iran in such a conflict could place tension on it’s relationship with other allies, Foreman said.
“I don’t think Russia wants to get between Israel and Iran. Russia has seen its strategic position in the Middle East weaken significantly since the October 7 Hamas attack.
“Hamas and Hezbollah are severely weakened, Assad was ousted in Syria and the Russian military largely evicted, and now Iran is being pummelled.”
Russia has never supplied Iran with its most modern military equipment, Foreman said. “I’m not convinced they would now given the state of the war in Ukraine,” he added.
“Their bilateral agreement doesn’t have any commitment to support Iran militarily because of Russia’s other relationships with Saudi and UAE.”
Professor Justin Bronk of Rusi, the UK’s leading defence think tank, said that Russia would be less eager to support the Tehran leadership than Iran has been to support Putin’s invasion.
“Russia is currently conducting a full scale offensive to try and break Ukraine before the end of the year, and so has very limited capacity to spare… in terms of munitions, training and industrial capacity.”
Is Putin reliant on Iran for drones?
A key partnership between Russia and Iran in recent years has been around drones, with Russia relying upon Iranian drones early on in the Ukraine war.
However, Russia has invested in diversifying its drone strategy away from reliance on Iran, with thousands of Geran-2 drones being manufactured domestically each year.
“I don’t think [the escalation in Iran] materially affects Russia continuing its war against Ukraine,” Foreman said.
“For those hoping that Ukrainians will get some respite as a result of Israeli strikes, a reminder that the Ukrainian military intelligence estimates that Russia is now building around 2,700 Geran-2 (based on Iranian Shahed drones) – and about the same as decoys – a month.
“It is also improving their range, accuracy, and warheads. This was a deliberate strategy from 2023 when Russia was more dependent on Iran.
“Russia has been seeking to diversify component supply away from Iran, integrate Russian tech, and improve overall quality.”
Could Iran-Israel attacks pause conflict in Ukraine?
Bronk agreed that the strikes on Iran would only provide partial respite, if any, to the Ukrainian frontlines, because Russia can now produce its own drones at scale.
However, he explained that the Israeli operation against Iran is likely to at least partially disrupt the supply of Iranian-made Shahed-136 and 131 one-way attack drones to Russia.
“Even if its factories are not hit by Israeli strikes, Iran will likely wish to use its production output where possible to harass Israel and tie up IAF capacity intercepting them,” Bronk said.
